China has drastically reduced the number of human cases of H7N9
China must live near poultry markets in large cities to stop the spread of a new strain of bird flu , which emerged earlier this month , scientists said , after they found a previous close has drastically reduced the number of human cases.
In a study published in the medical journal The Lancet on Thursday, researchers from Hong Kong and China, said that while closing markets during the height of the first outbreak of H7N9 in April may have been costly , dramatically reducing human infections and must do again if cases increase as feared.
The results 97% reduction of human case
The results of a reduction of over 97 percent in the daily number of human cases of the new H7N9 strain after markets closed compared to earlier - should give policy makers confidence that the economic costs of markets that close is balanced with significant health benefits .
" (This ) is a highly effective intervention to prevent human disease and protect public health ," said Benjamin cover Hong Kong University , who led the study that had been published in the medical journal The Lancet .
Based on their findings, said the best approach to minimize the spread of H7N9 avian flu ahead of an expected increase in cases during the winter flu season would close markets that have detected the virus.
We found two new human cases of H7N9 avian influenza in Zhejiang Province , eastern China, in October , the first in what some experts fear the flu can be a new outbreak of the deadly disease to come from China during the months cold winter .
" This is of great concern because it reveals that the H7N9 virus has continued to circulate and now has the ability to re-emerge in a new outbreak of the disease in humans this winter," said Deck , echoing similar fears expressed by Chinese researchers in a study published last week.
Mortality rate 30 PERCENT
About 45 people have been killed so far by the
H7N9 strain of flu , many of them during an outbreak in March and April just after the virus first appeared in humans in early February.
The World Health Organization (WHO ) says it has recorded 137 laboratory-confirmed cases , suggesting a mortality rate of the new strain of more than 30 percent.
In early April , several weeks later came the first human cases of
H7N9 avian influenza , 780 live bird markets in the Chinese cities of Shanghai , Hangzhou , Huzhou and Nanjing were closed to try to stop the spread of the virus.
source
http://www.flu.gov/about_the_flu/h7n9#
The closure is estimated to cost more than 57 billion yuan (
The closure is estimated to cost more than 57 billion yuan ( $ 9,350,000,000 ) , so the team set out to cover study whether these costs can be justified .
The team analyzed data from each laboratory-confirmed case of H7N9 in the four cities up to June 1, 2013 and entered into a statistical calculation method called Bayesian model was able to quantify the before and after effects the close of the markets.
The results of the closures to reduce the average daily number of H7N9 human infections by 99 percent in Shanghai , 99 percent in Hangzhou , 97 percent in Huzhou and 97 percent in Nanjing .
"Without this robust evidence , politicians would have difficulty justifying LPM more closures due to the ancient culture of trading of live birds and the huge potential economic loss in the poultry industry in China, " said Deck .
However, it added, the best course of action to minimize the spread of the virus before the expected increase in infections in the winter would remain live bird market closure in areas of high risk of spreading the disease, and the closure immediate market areas where the virus appears in the future
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